It’s finally time for the Iowa caucuses! In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s “Model Talk,” Nate Silver discusses the latest data and what unknowns could still lead to a surprise result. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Focus on Rural America Iowa Caucus Poll
… Our last statewide poll had Biden out in front with Warren, Buttigieg, and Sanders each in close contention for the second tier. This time, we went into the field from January 28-30th and polled 300 likely caucusgoers statewide through landlines, cell phones, and text-to-web. In first we found Pete […] Read more »
The Road to Milwaukee: How the Democratic Primary Will Unfold
The voting in the Democratic presidential contest is finally upon us. Iowa begins the march to the July Democratic National Convention, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina in February. These early contests will get loads of attention throughout the month, although the dirty little secret is that, together, […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders climbing in new NH poll on eve of Iowa caucuses
Bernie Sanders continues to lead his Democratic rivals in New Hampshire just hours before the Iowa caucuses, which could hand him a crucial victory in the first contest of the race, a new Franklin Pierce University-Boston Herald-NBC10Boston poll reveals. Sanders has boosted his support in the Granite State to 31% […] Read more »
As caucus night approaches, undecided Iowans are making their decisions
… Never in recent election years have there been so many voters in Iowa who are either undecided or who say they could change their minds before Monday night, whether activists or sometime caucus attendees. Iowans are weighing head versus heart, ideology versus electability, issues versus character and experience. It […] Read more »
CBS News Battleground Tracker: What could happen in Iowa on Monday?
Our final CBS News Iowa Battleground Tracker offers a statistical simulation of the caucuses and some scenarios that might unfold on Monday. It looks like a close contest heading in, and the top candidates are all poised to win national delegates. To show what could happen — and more importantly, […] Read more »