Although controversy continues to swirl around the Iowa caucuses, folks here in New Hampshire seemed to have already moved on. They don’t need an official recanvass or final party certified winner to tell them what happened on Monday night. Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg were the winners. Joe Biden was […] Read more »
Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down
Now that we finally have some clarity on Iowa’s results — with 86 percent of precincts reporting — we’ve turned our primary model back on, including its estimates of the potential fallout from Iowa. The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates […] Read more »
The Iowa muddle isn’t over, even now that the first results are in
The muddle was still the message even after the Iowa Democratic Party finally released partial results from Monday night’s caucuses following an agonizing and unprecedented delay. … Even if the final numbers, or the order of finish among the candidates, shift somewhat when the last votes are released, one large […] Read more »
A boost for Buttigieg and concerns for Biden and Warren
One state down, and many states to go. In one respect, former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg “won” the Iowa caucuses Monday evening regardless whether he finishes first in delegates or in the popular vote. … Veteran pollster Gary Langer described Buttigieg’s performance in the Iowa caucuses entrance poll as […] Read more »
Supporting a non-preferred candidate
Much has been written about candidates’ “electability,” and pundits often wonder how these concerns affect the Democratic presidential primary this year. Are primary voters planning on voting for the person they want to be president, the person they think is most likely to beat Donald Trump, or are these things […] Read more »
Iowa Road Trip: Do Reporters Know Anything?
What’s going to happen? The Uber driver, learning my occupation, wants to know. So, too, newsroom colleagues who cover beats other than politics. So, too, family members, who not unreasonably imagine that I must have gained some insight by leaving them to travel here. Two words I have learned to […] Read more »