With less than two weeks to go until the Alabama Senate runoff, we’re pulling back our Leans Democratic rating in the race and going to Toss-up. We just don’t feel comfortable making anyone a favorite at this point. The race is as stern a test of tribal partisanship as one […] Read more »
Why Is Roy Moore Back In Front? Time And Trump Are Probably Helping
Republican Roy Moore appears to have pulled back into a lead in Alabama’s special Senate election. Moore had lost ground in the polls after allegations of child molestation and sexual misconduct were leveled against him starting on Nov. 9. … Jones jumped out in front of Moore in three polls […] Read more »
Why Evangelicals Stick with Donald Trump and Roy Moore
Nobody should be surprised that evangelical voters are sticking with the GOP. I’ve been watching evangelical voting behavior since I worked for Paul Weyrich’s Free Congress Foundation in the 1980s, and I’ve come to believe that, in most cases (though certainly not all), white evangelicals get their religion from their […] Read more »
Sample Composition Effects in Alabama Senate Election Polling
The controversy surrounding Roy Moore in the Alabama Senate election seemed primed to create a differential partisan nonresponse bias phenomenon often seen in past election polling. As negative news increases about a candidate in an election, members of the public who share that candidate’s party or support the candidate become […] Read more »
When ‘Democrat’ is a worse slur than ‘alleged sexual miscreant’
President Trump’s rationale for continuing to support Roy Moore, the Republican candidate for the Senate in the Alabama, was simple when he offered it on Tuesday. “We don’t need a liberal person in there, a Democrat,” Trump said. The contrast Trump drew, then, was this. Either Moore, accused of sexual […] Read more »
Poll Hub: The Alabama Senate Race
Allegations of sexual misconduct against the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Alabama, Roy Moore, have rocked the special election in the state. In this reddest of red states, the polls are inconsistent, and many lack the scientific rigor that instills confidence in the polls. Can the polls be believed? […] Read more »