Americans’ engagement with the 2020 presidential election remains relatively high, as 59% of U.S. adults, similar to the 63% recorded in January, say they feel more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s election. … Enthusiasm for voting in 2020 is fairly high among Democrats and Republicans, although Republicans […] Read more »
Sanders could not beat Trump simply by mobilizing turnout. Here’s why.
Bernie Sanders, the clear front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination after his commanding victory in Nevada on Saturday, often says the principal reason he can beat President Donald Trump in a general election is that he will massively increase voter turnout. But very few Democratic strategists, from across the ideological […] Read more »
Sanders Says He’ll Attract a Wave of New Voters. It Hasn’t Happened.
It is the most politically provocative part of Senator Bernie Sanders’s campaign pitch: that his progressive movement will bring millions of nonvoters into the November election, driving record turnout especially among disaffected working-class Americans and young people. And yet despite a virtual tie in Iowa, a narrow victory in New […] Read more »
Biden’s Iowa Problem: Our Poll Suggests His Voters Aren’t the Caucusing Type
With one week to go until the Iowa caucuses, Joe Biden finds himself in a seemingly unimaginable position: needing to mobilize older voters who are usually the most consistent voters. This helps explain why recent polls diverge so much on Mr. Biden’s standing in Iowa. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York […] Read more »
The Religious Left is Small But Loud
… It’s easy to find activists, organizations, and vocal clergy to represent the religious left, but what we really need are estimates of population proportions. We have ample survey data for this task in the Cooperative Congressional Election Study series from 2006-2018, all of which have enormous samples (~50-65k) and […] Read more »
How Your Phone Betrays Democracy
… In the United States, and across the world, any protester who brings a phone to a public demonstration is tracked and that person’s presence at the event is duly recorded in commercial datasets. At the same time, political parties are beginning to collect and purchase phone location for voter […] Read more »