It’s often said that military leaders “fight the last war”: They assume their current enemy is just like the previous one so they misjudge their foe and lose. The Republican establishment is making that exact mistake in the 2024 presidential primary. According to multiple recent reports, high-ranking Republicans don’t want […] Read more »
The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting
Key Points• Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common.• Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee […] Read more »
Updated Evidence Of Our Increasingly Sclerotic National And State Politics
… At the state level, voters increasingly cast their ballots in similar partisan proportions for different candidates in different circumstances. This political sclerosis reduces the system’s responsiveness to realities. It used to be that great candidates fared much better than bad ones; a country doing well yielded very different results […] Read more »
Highlights of GOP Presidential Primary Survey
In the wake of a disappointing Republican performance in the 2022 midterm elections, Donald Trump has slipped to his lowest point since he emerged on the political scene almost eight years ago. He remains a formidable force, to be sure, with a lock on approximately 30 percent of likely Republican […] Read more »
Much has changed in 3 months, but a new NBC News poll finds plenty is still the same
So much has changed in the nearly three months since the November midterm elections: Republicans winning control of the U.S. House and Democrats keeping the Senate; former President Donald Trump’s announced presidential bid and special counsel investigation; a special investigation for President Biden, too; the GOP’s chaotic speaker vote — […] Read more »
Biden’s approval drops as he takes the spotlight from Trump
President Joe Biden’s political standing has benefited greatly over the past couple of years from his predecessor Donald Trump’s inability to cede the limelight. It’s part of the reason that Biden’s Democratic Party had one of the best midterms last fall for a party that controlled the White House, despite […] Read more »