By almost any historic yardstick, President Joe Biden is beginning the reelection campaign he formally announced today in a vulnerable position. His job-approval rating has consistently come in at 45 percent or less; in several recent high-quality national polls, it has dipped closer to 40 percent. In surveys, three-fourths or […] Read more »
Most Republicans would vote for Trump even if he’s convicted of a crime, poll finds
As President Biden launches his reelection campaign, a rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump looks increasingly likely. This comes as a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out Tuesday that finds two-thirds of Republicans would still vote for Trump even if he is found guilty of a crime. … Overall, […] Read more »
Where Biden’s poll numbers stand as he announces 2024 run
Four in 10 Americans approve of how President Joe Biden is running the country, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted in the days before he announced his campaign for reelection. Meanwhile, a majority of Republicans currently say they would vote for Donald Trump, even if he is convicted […] Read more »
Is Biden’s Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?
Key Points• Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive.• Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small.• Assuming President Biden’s approval, which is mired […] Read more »
Biden vs. Trump: Big challenges, but opposite ones, as 2024 rematch begins – Poll
Joe Biden and Donald Trump each face significant challenges in a potential rematch for the White House in 2024, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll finds – but opposite ones. For President Biden, expected to launch his reelection bid Tuesday, his standing among the voters who backed him in 2020 is […] Read more »
Why 2024 could be the most boring presidential primary season ever
For people who write about electoral, or “horse race,” politics, few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season. Sometimes, both Democrats and Republicans cooperate by holding gripping fights for the party nods (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly coalesce around front-runners (see 2000). A […] Read more »