Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 Republican primary is not certain. But it now looks more than merely likely. … Without question, Trump is an exceptionally weak general-election candidate. To no small extent, his personal odiousness does much of the Democratic Party’s persuasion-and-mobilization work for it. … But that doesn’t […] Read more »
Will the 2024 presidential election be 2020 all over again?
With President Joe Biden announcing his 2024 presidential campaign earlier this week, Americans are facing a similar sight: Biden and former President Donald Trump appear to be the most likely options to be the Democratic and Republican candidates, respectively, according to early polling. Of course, it’s far too early to […] Read more »
How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge
Key Points• Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are outliers in Congress — no other Senate or House member holds a state/district that is more hostile to his or her party at the presidential level than this pair.• Montana and especially West Virginia are deeply Republican at the […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Trump still top 2024 Republican preference, DeSantis slipping
Former President Donald Trump maintains his advantage in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race, as support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falls for the second month in a row, according to a new Fox News survey. In addition, President Joe Biden bests his challengers in the survey’s first test of […] Read more »
DeSantis trails far behind Trump in Republican support for the 2024 presidential nomination
The latest Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that Donald Trump continues to lead in support for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, followed far behind by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In hypothetical matchups versus President Joe Biden, the margin between Trump and Biden is slimmer than that for Biden and DeSantis. While the […] Read more »
Biden’s fate lies with Republicans more than Democrats
… An NBC News poll out just days before his announcement shows that 51 percent of Democrats said they’d prefer Biden not run. A lot of that reflects his age, but his age was a concern in 2020, too. There is almost zero doubt that Biden will be the 2024 […] Read more »