Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023

Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »

Notes on the State of Politics: Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; U.S. House back to full strength, but not for long

Key Points• In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her nearly 50-point win represented a notable overperformance.• The most important judicial race of this year will be in the closely-divided state of Wisconsin, where control of the state Supreme Court is on the […] Read more »

2024 Governors Races: A First Look

Key Points• North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up.• The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats.• If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire […] Read more »