When the right to choose an abortion is on the ballot, it wins. And it will keep winning for the rest of the decade until the right to abortion is secured state by state in all but the deepest red states and the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision is rendered moot. […] Read more »
Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023
Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics: Wisconsin’s key state Supreme Court race; U.S. House back to full strength, but not for long
Key Points• In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her nearly 50-point win represented a notable overperformance.• The most important judicial race of this year will be in the closely-divided state of Wisconsin, where control of the state Supreme Court is on the […] Read more »
The most consequential election of 2023 is next week
Next Tuesday, Wisconsin holds a statewide judicial primary in which as few as half a million ballots may be cast. This seemingly obscure election can affect millions of lives for much of this decade – and maybe our national election in 2024. Wisconsin is a microcosm of partisan warfare in […] Read more »
2024 Governors Races: A First Look
Key Points• North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up.• The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats.• If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire […] Read more »