A majority of Americans, 56%, at the tail end of the 2020 campaign report being satisfied with the way Joe Biden’s campaign has been conducted, while 46% say the same about President Donald Trump’s campaign. Ratings of Trump’s campaign are markedly better than they were during his 2016 run, when […] Read more »
Who wins the Senate? Watch the presidential race
Senate races across the country are converging with the trend in the presidential race in that same state, underscoring the increasingly parliamentary nature of American elections. In 2016, for the first time since the direct election of all senators began in 1914, every Senate race finished the same way as […] Read more »
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Final Ratings for the 2020 Election
Key Points• Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.• Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.• We have […] Read more »
Biden’s Favored In Our Final Presidential Forecast, But It’s A Fine Line Between A Landslide And A Nail-Biter
… Biden’s standing is considerably stronger than Clinton’s at the end of the 2016 race. His lead is larger than Clinton’s in every battleground state, and more than double her lead nationally. Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected […] Read more »
Biden has the advantage, but Trump will say otherwise
The choice is as clear as it gets. Do you believe President Donald Trump or your eyes? … I suppose it’s possible that all of the polls are wrong, even though they’re conducted by various survey research firms and publications using different methodologies. To see Trump winning, you must believe […] Read more »
More Than 80% of Likely U.S. Voters Decided on Presidential Choice Two Years Ago
In a striking assessment of how Donald Trump’s politics have produced a deeply divergent assessment of his presidency, a new University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of likely voters released today shows that more than 80% of the electorate had already decided which party’s presidential nominee they would support by the […] Read more »