Watching the presidential election returns on election night in retirement community of The Villages, Florida. Ricardo Arduengo/AFP via Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Election polling is facing yet another reckoning following its uneven-at-best performance in this year’s voting. Although the outcome in the 2020 presidential […] Read more »
Hispanics’ Support For Trump Tied To Faith
As Democratic leaders consider why Joe Biden failed to attract more Hispanic support in this election, they might consider a key datapoint: Hispanic Christians, especially Catholics and evangelical Protestants, have drifted increasingly toward the Republican Party in recent years. Between 2018 and 2020, the share of Hispanic Catholics who approved […] Read more »
As in 2016, polls gave a misleading picture of the race. What happened?
As the results rolled in on Tuesday night, a feeling of déjà vu arrived along with them. Pre-election polls, it appeared, had been misleading once again. While the nation awaits final results from Michigan, Pennsylvania and a few other states, it is already clear — no matter who ends up […] Read more »
Post-Election National Survey
Public Opinion Strategies completed N=1600 interviews last night with 2020 voters. There is a lot more to learn and say about this election, but, here are five initial key takeaways from this work: CONT. Public Opinion Strategies The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and […] Read more »
House Republicans Defy the Polls, Narrow Democrats’ Majority
District-level polling has rarely led us — or the parties and groups investing in House races — so astray. Prior to Tuesday, most Republican strategists were privately resigned to the prospect of a double-digit loss of seats. At this writing, Republicans may be on track to pick up between five […] Read more »
Sifting Through the Results So Far
… Amidst the highest turnout in modern history, both Biden and President Donald Trump turned out their bases and battled in an epic duel that remains undecided. In our final pre-election assessment, we warned of the possibility that many polls could be missing a significant share of the Trump electorate, […] Read more »