The polling industry and election forecasters suffered another embarrassing election night that will call into question the usefulness of public opinion surveys and horse race political coverage that appeared to once again underestimate President Trump’s support. Votes are still being tallied in critical battleground states, meaning the final verdict on […] Read more »
A Cold War Between Red and Blue America
The clearest message of this week’s complicated election results is that the trench is deepening between red and blue America. … With Biden’s near-certain popular-vote victory, Democrats have now won the most votes in seven of the past eight presidential elections, something no party has ever done since the formation […] Read more »
Interpreting the Early Results of the 2020 Election
What can the 2020 election teach us about polling and politics? On the afternoon after Election Day, Matt Grossmann hosts the first-ever live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist to discuss where exactly the models went wrong (and what they […] Read more »
It’s too early to trash the polls
After Donald Trump’s surprise victory in 2016, the 2020 election became a referendum on both Trump’s first term and the pollsters and forecasters who appeared to underestimate his chances four years ago. That first question hasn’t yet been settled. But many were quick to declare a verdict on the second. […] Read more »
2020’s polling miss? These Republicans say they saw it coming.
A misread of who is likely to vote. An overreliance on party registration. Failing to reach voters where they’re most likely to respond — via text and email — in favor of a phone call. These are just some of the explanations for the great polling miss of the 2020 […] Read more »
Don’t kid yourself. The polls messed up.
… The forecasts were off. We were forecasting Biden to get 54.4% of the two-party vote and it seems that he only got 52% or so. We forecasted Biden at 356 electoral votes and it seems that he’ll only end up with 280 or so. We had uncertainty intervals, and […] Read more »