… On average, the polls appear to have been off by about 2.5 to 3 percentage points this year. The absolute error in polls is not necessarily larger than in previous years. But, crucially, both public and private polls continued to overestimate Democratic vote share in Florida and in Midwestern […] Read more »
Where Polls Got It Wrong
In the run up to the 2020 election, many polls show Joe Biden and Democrats with a significant lead, both nationally and in multiple swing states. As NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben reports, pollsters are now confronting the question of how far off polls were and what caused it. NPR News The OPINION […] Read more »
2020 election reveals two broad voting coalitions fundamentally at odds
Even before all the ballots are tallied, Americans appear to have voted in the 2020 presidential election at their highest rate in 120 years. Democrat Joe Biden has amassed more than 74 million votes as of Nov. 6, while Republican Donald Trump has received nearly 70 million – already the […] Read more »
The Electoral College Is Close. The Popular Vote Isn’t.
As the presidential race inches agonizingly toward a conclusion, it might be easy to miss the fact that the results are not really close. With many ballots still left to count in heavily Democratic cities, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. was leading President Trump on Friday by more […] Read more »
The political winds in the U.S. are swirling
Democrats (and pollsters) predicted a mighty gust blowing the country left this year, in response to the rightward gale that swept President Trump into office. Instead of a corresponding tempest, however, the country barely puffed just enough in a few places to lift Joe Biden up. CONT. Tim Meko, Joe […] Read more »
Director defends Quinnipiac Poll after Trump says they were ‘wrong on every occasion’
The director of the Quinnipiac University Poll is defending the integrity of its surveys after they and other pollsters have come under intense scrutiny, including from President Donald Trump himself, after failing to predict the tight race between Trump and Democrat Joe Biden, along with various U.S. Senate races. CONT. […] Read more »