… As Americans have polarized, both the Democratic and Republican parties have become ever more central to politics. However, they have simultaneously lost their capacity to organize an effective collective response to social challenges. Democrats in particular have historically paid sporadic and superficial attention to the mechanics of voter engagement […] Read more »
Don’t trust the exit polls
… Biden didn’t do as well as public polls projected. Some groups unexpectedly appeared to have shifted toward Trump, such as Latinos. In rushing to understand what happened, some have relied on the National Exit Poll (NEP) conducted by Edison Research to form narratives about what happened and why. But […] Read more »
Calif. governor faces pressure to choose a Latino to replace Harris in the Senate
Since California was carved out of Mexico and joined the union more than a century and a half ago, the state has never had a Latino representing it in the U.S. Senate. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) now has the opportunity to change that amid increasing pressure to do so. Two […] Read more »
What Went Wrong With Polling? Some Early Theories
Asking for a polling post-mortem at this stage is a little bit like asking a coroner for the cause of death while the body is still at the crime scene. You’re going to have to wait to conduct a full autopsy. But make no mistake: It’s not too early to […] Read more »
Why the Senate is so tough for Democrats
The expected twin Georgia runoff elections in January that will determine control of the Senate encapsulate the structural challenge facing Democrats as they battle to secure a majority in the chamber that could determine the shape of Joe Biden’s presidency. As the results of Senate contests increasingly correlate with the […] Read more »
Did ‘Shy Trump Voters’ throw off the polls? Maybe not.
The polls underestimated President Trump’s strength yet again during the 2020 election — and, yet again, “Shy Trump Voters” who feel social pressure to stay silent about their views are being cited as a potential cause of the miss. So the theory goes, these voters believe that even strangers would […] Read more »