In 2020, President Trump delivered a political shock, not by winning the election but by taking an unexpectedly high share of the Latino vote. The story of how he did it says a lot about just how hard it is to build a stable political coalition. … What happened? How […] Read more »
Notes on the State of the 2020 Election
Key Points• Joe Biden is on track to exceed Barack Obama’s 2012 popular vote margin, but his victory in the key states is even narrower than Donald Trump’s in 2016.• Less than 2% of the national vote went to candidates other than Biden and Trump, a significant change from 2016.• […] Read more »
How independents, Latino voters and Catholics shifted from 2016 and swung states for Biden and Trump
The contours of a reshaped and expanded electorate are coming into focus, with network exit poll results providing an early look at which groups shifted the most from the 2016 to 2020 presidential elections. Overall, the network exit poll conducted by Edison Research suggests that despite a massive surge in […] Read more »
‘I Don’t Have a Happy Ending’: A Pollster on What Went Wrong
Over the past few days, there’s been much consternation over this year’s polling of the presidential race. How did we end up with a close election in key swing states after months of surveys that suggested there could be a Democratic landslide? It’s a familiar crisis: After the 2016 election, […] Read more »
The 2020 Election Was A Good One For Republicans Not Named Trump
Republicans outperformed the polls up and down the ballot in the 2020 election, to the surprise even of many Republican political operatives and survey researchers. To be clear, Democrat Joe Biden defeated President Trump; Democrats will still control the House and still have a chance of picking up the Senate. […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s win grows more decisive each day as votes are counted
President Donald Trump’s efforts to deny the outcome of the 2020 election cannot change an undeniable reality: Joe Biden won decisively, and his lead nationally and in key states has grown over time as more votes have been counted. … And let’s be clear, the chance of a recount overturning […] Read more »