… We developed a forecast of each state’s presidential vote based primarily on three fundamental factors: each state’s presidential vote in 2016; state economic conditions through June of the election year, and state presidential approval ratings based on surveys conducted in June and July of this year. … If Biden […] Read more »
How 2020 Killed Off Democrats’ Demographic Hopes
For years, the Democratic Party has operated under one immutable assumption: Long-term demographic trends would give the party something like a permanent majority as the country as a whole grows less white and more urban. President Donald Trump’s reliance on the politics of racial resentment would only quicken the process, […] Read more »
The Divides That Define Us
… Our elections have become proxies for cultural identity, with voters attaching existential meaning to them. A recent Pew Research Center analysis concluded that “underlying the many policy disagreements between Biden and Trump voters is a more personal feeling of distrust and disillusionment that could make compromise all the more […] Read more »
‘A Black Eye’: Why Political Polling Missed the Mark. Again.
… For the second straight presidential election, the polling industry missed the mark. The miss was not as blatant as in 2016, when polls suggested Mr. Trump would lose, nor was the miss as large as it appeared it might be on election night. Once all the votes are counted, […] Read more »
Confessions of a pollster: Time to put the election forecasting industry out of its misery
… Because they focused so much on campaigns and candidates, much of the election forecasting industry missed what was happening in America. In May, 23% of voters believed their personal finances were getting better. That grew to 27% by mid-October and 29% right before the election. That’s the same trend […] Read more »
Democrats’ 2024 Problem Is Already Clear
Joe Biden often describes himself as a bridge between the Democratic Party’s past and future generation of leaders. But the 2020 election results signal that he may play an even more indispensable role, as a bridge between the party’s past and future electoral coalitions. Biden won the White House by […] Read more »