In Georgia, which has not voted to send a Democrat to the White House since Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, Joe Biden was able to hold onto some traditional Democratic voting groups like Black voters and younger voters while also making inroads with White voters, particularly those with […] Read more »
Religious Group Voting and the 2020 Election
Religion, by my estimation, was a more prominent issue in the runup to the 2020 election than in other recent presidential campaigns. This reflects two factors. First, President Donald Trump over the past four years has made a concerted effort to promote policies and programs designed specifically to increase support […] Read more »
2020 Post Election Poll Analysis of an Election Like No Other
As we have done, every two years in federal elections, since 1994, we once again conducted a post-election poll of 1,000 actual voters online who either voted early or on election day. The survey had an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The voters were interviewed on […] Read more »
Why did the polls undercount Trump voters?
… After studying 2016 election polling, the American Association for Public Opinion Research reported that it found no evidence of “shy” Trump voters. More recent studies challenged that, suggesting such voters might exist. Survey firms that correctly predicted the 2016 election have argued that they did so because of how […] Read more »
Why Couldn’t Democrats Ride the Blue Wave?
… So, what happened to the Democratic wave, if there ever was one? It is difficult for me to fathom that so many polls, conducted by dozens of pollsters from both parties using different methodologies, could all be wrong, and in the same direction. In my judgment, there was a […] Read more »
In the popular vote, why wasn’t Biden’s victory bigger?
In the 2020 election some Democrats, buoyed by misleading polls and their own hopes, believed that Joe Biden might win a landslide. But a quick look at recent history reveals how improbable those predictions were. We live in an era of closely contested presidential elections without precedent in the past […] Read more »