Michigan Republican Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey, left, and Republican House Speaker Lee Chatfield are among those expected to visit the White House. AP Photo/David Eggert Austin Sarat, Amherst College The state of Michigan, and the United States as a whole, may face a political crisis brought on by President […] Read more »
What Pollsters Want You to Know About What Went Wrong
… Public opinion research is a thankless job in the best of times. There are no congratulations for charting the nation’s changing preferences toward a wide range of issues, or for basically predicting the future, as pollsters did, for the most part, prior to the 2018 midterms. But there’s no […] Read more »
Election polls are more accurate if they ask participants how others will vote
People have information on how they’ll vote, but also about how others in their community may vote. AP Photo/Wong Maye-E Mirta Galesic, University of Potsdam and Wändi Bruine de Bruin, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences Most public opinion polls correctly predicted the winning candidate in the 2020 […] Read more »
Wisconsin: Decisive Again in 2020
Key Points• Once again, Wisconsin appears to be the tipping point state in the Electoral College, though its 10 electoral votes are back in the Democratic column this year.• In 2016, Donald Trump made major inroads in western Wisconsin. Despite coming up short statewide, his gains in the region largely […] Read more »
Religion Divides Hispanic Opinion in the U.S.
Preliminary exit polling indicates that around one-third of Hispanic voters cast their ballots for President Donald Trump, and more than four in ten voted for Trump in the crucial state of Florida. Trump’s performance among Hispanic voters in 2020 is likely better than it was in 2016, when exit polls […] Read more »
How Biden Won: Ramping Up The Base And Expanding Margins In The Suburbs
There was a debate in the runup to this year’s presidential election about whether it’d be a base election or a persuasion one. In other words, what would matter more for a candidate — turning out one side’s core voters, or winning over undecideds and wavering supporters of President Trump? […] Read more »