Nearly 160 million Americans voted in the 2020 elections, by far the most in history and a level of turnout not seen in over a century, representing an extraordinary milestone of civic engagement in a year marked by a devastating pandemic, record unemployment and political unrest. … The shifts that […] Read more »
All the focus is on Georgia — and who will vote and who will not
More than 158 million votes — a record — have been counted in the 2020 election. The presidential race has been decided, no matter how many times President Trump falsely claims otherwise. But the Biden-Harris administration ultimately will be shaped by the few million votes yet to be cast in […] Read more »
American Democracy’s Stress Test Is Nearly Complete
In just 51 days, the United States will close a bizarre chapter of American history. Things will probably never return to “normal,” at least as defined by pre-pandemic standards, but to borrow the title of a great 2013 political documentary about contemporary race and politics in New Orleans, Getting Back […] Read more »
The undecided verdict on 2020 polling
… Many of the poll-blamers ignore the fact that undecided voters are, well, undecided. As this column has noted before, pollsters are not mind-readers and polls are not crystal balls that can see the future. If someone is asked who they plan to support and they say they haven’t decided, […] Read more »
Coalition Shifts in Senate Races: SC, KY, IL
Key Points• The reelection victories of three long-serving senators illustrate some of the nation’s political shifts.• Despite a well-funded Democratic challenge, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) held on in large part because of the lack of ticket splitting in his red state.• As of this election, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell […] Read more »
How did the Political Science Forecasters Do?
Key Points• Prior to the election, several prominent political scientists forecast the election in PS: Political Science and Politics.• In aggregate, the forecasts performed very well.• However, several individual forecasts missed the mark, and this election showed the importance of questioning the assumptions of models in the midst of an […] Read more »