Polls have faced strident criticism after President Trump outperformed pre-election surveys nationally and in key states. Now that nearly all votes have been counted, a clearer picture of poll accuracy has emerged, showing that they struggled much more in certain states, while they were much more accurate in others. … […] Read more »
Just A Quarter Of Republicans Accept Election Outcome
A solid majority of Americans trust that the results of the 2020 presidential election are accurate, but only about a quarter of Republicans do, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey. Sixty-one percent say they trust the results, including two-thirds of independents, but just 24% of Republican respondents say they […] Read more »
How votes shifted in the six political states of Georgia
… Before the election, The Trailer broke down Georgia’s map as part of our “political geography” series, and pointed out that there was enough Democratic growth in the racially diverse and highly educated suburbs of Atlanta to put the state in play. That’s exactly what happened. That’s what Republicans fear […] Read more »
COVID made polls too pro-Biden
Polling error in 2020, while within the historical range of polling error, has caused a lot of heartburn among Democratic strategists, pollsters, and data analysts. We’re still at work understanding the 2020 election’s polling misses, but one theory that looks accurate is that the COVID-19 pandemic caused polls to overstate […] Read more »
The Places That Had the Biggest Swings Toward and Against Trump
With most of the slow-to-report votes tallied, we finally have a clearer picture of last month’s presidential results. Despite the high polarization in the country that carried over to the reaction to the results — with 70 percent to 80 percent of Republicans still saying they disbelieve that Joe Biden […] Read more »
The Suburbs Helped Elect Biden. Can They Give Democrats the Senate, Too?
… Mr. Trump lost ground with suburban voters across the country. And particularly in Georgia, where rapidly changing demographics have made it the most racially diverse political battleground in the country, his pitch has been at odds with reality. From the inner suburbs surrounding Atlanta and extending to the traditionally […] Read more »