Unsurprisingly, our first survey of 2019, conducted during the government shutdown, shows those saying the country is on the wrong track up sharply since the November election. This is a stunning start to the new year. Since Trump took office, voters were only more pessimistic in October 2017 when the […] Read more »
Why 2020 candidates cannot ignore Iowa or New Hampshire
Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two contests of the primary season, have traditionally been key for presidential contenders. This year, though, a lot of Democrats are talking up the importance of contests with a more diverse electorate, like California, Nevada and most importantly, South Carolina. It is true that […] Read more »
The Early States’ Stranglehold on the Presidential Primary
For 2020, Democrats appear virtually certain to assemble the largest and most diverse collection of presidential contenders in the party’s history. And with the rise of online fundraising, ever-expanding opportunities to communicate through social media, and the proliferation of political news on the internet and cable television, the candidates, more […] Read more »
2020 Electoral College: Why the Republicans’ magic number is probably 269, not 270
The Republican presidential nominee has won a majority in the Electoral College twice in the last five elections (2000 and 2016) despite finishing second in the popular vote. Heading into 2020, it may be that the GOP nominee could lose the popular vote, only tie in the Electoral College, and […] Read more »
Democrats and their voters have lurched left as 2020 nears. They’re betting the rest of the country follows.
… For years, Democratic presidential candidates have been skittish about taking positions that were considered too liberal, for fear of scaring off moderates and independent voters. That caution seems to be gone, along with soul-searching about making explicit appeals to conservative voters. It has been replaced by confidence — whether […] Read more »
The counterrevolution to populism is happening all over the world
It’s not just in the United States. The counterrevolution to populism is happening all over the world, and it’s turning the old left-right political axis on its head. In country after country, the rise of anti-immigrant parties or movements is forcing many supporters of traditional center-right parties to recalibrate. Culturally […] Read more »