David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report published an op-ed article in the New York Times on Wednesday provocatively titled “Why a Long Democratic Primary Slugfest Might Help Re-Elect Trump.” In the piece, Wasserman argues that the Democratic presidential nomination race in 2020 could well turn out to be a […] Read more »
Who’s Taking Up Obama’s Mantle In 2020?
Since leaving office, former President Barack Obama has experienced a boost in public opinion, and his post-presidency approval rating is especially strong among Democrats. That popularity could make him a powerful surrogate on the 2020 campaign trail, and he has been meeting with many of the Democrats who are or […] Read more »
Trump May Have an Unlikely Re-election Ally
Donald Trump’s low approval ratings have attracted a crush of Democrats vying to make him a one-term president. But he might have an unlikely ally in his re-election bid: Democrats’ mess of a primary system. … A brokered convention wasn’t a grave concern for Democrats in 2008 or 2016, because […] Read more »
The capitalism vs. socialism debate: Bring it on
Capitalism vs. socialism. It sounds like a debate topic better suited to a ’60s Berkley lecture hall than a 21st-century presidential campaign taking place in a robust, capitalist economy. … The latest survey by Winning the Issues (Feb. 28-March 1) asked people to choose which economic system — capitalism or […] Read more »
Joe Biden’s And Bernie Sanders’s Support Isn’t Just About Name Recognition
If you’re a longtime reader of FiveThirtyEight, you’ll know that the early stage of the presidential primary process is a tricky one for us to cover. It’s tempting to put a lot of emphasis on shiny objects with numbers attached — polls, endorsement counts, fundraising totals — especially given our […] Read more »
The Biden Paradox, and How to Solve It
Joe Biden, apparently on the cusp of declaring his third run for the White House, is caught in a paradox that might be without precedent in modern American presidential politics. Nearly everyone thinks he can beat Donald Trump. At the same time, no one thinks he’ll get the chance to […] Read more »