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‘On Paper, the Election Is the Democrats’ to Lose’

With more than a year and a half to go before the 2020 elections, Republicans can take comfort in a number of factors. The result of the Mueller investigation has set back Democratic hopes for an easy victory; the history of presidents running for a second term favors incumbents; and […] Read more »

The Five Wings Of The Republican Party

… We don’t have an official definition of Trumpism, but we’re describing it here in terms of four areas where Trump is somewhat distinct from previous Republican presidents: (i) Anti-institutionalism (his attacks on the Justice Department and the media, for example); (ii) Economic protectionism (his wariness about international trade agreements); […] Read more »

Awash in data

“Who’s going to win the Democratic nomination for President?” It’s the question I get most often these days. We are already swimming in data, but haven’t the slightest idea who will leave Milwaukee as the nominee. The data come in four categories: • Mentions • Money • Endorsements • Polls […] Read more »

When it comes to younger voters, watch the margin of victory

There’s really no question Democrats are going to win younger voters in 2020. But what matters for them is the size of their margin of victory. Republicans haven’t carried 18-to-29-year-olds in an election cycle since 1994, when exit polling showed them besting Democrats in this age group, 51 percent to […] Read more »

Unlike Mueller, health care will likely be a top issue in 2020

The biggest 2020 news this week is not the end of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation. It’s that President Donald Trump’s administration has asserted for the first time that the entire Affordable Care Act should be struck down. Health care has consistently been listed by voters as a top […] Read more »