It’s way too early to know who is going to win the 2020 presidential race. We don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be, and we don’t know what President Donald Trump’s approval rating will be. Still, we can look for patterns in the early polling to see what is […] Read more »
How Cable News And The Polls Reacted To 2020 Campaign Announcements
Does an increase in attention from the media, like we’ve generally seen this cycle surrounding a presidential hopeful’s campaign launch, correspond with a boost in a candidate’s popularity in the polls? At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve looked at how much kickoff coverage candidates have gotten on the big three cable TV news […] Read more »
Trump is struggling despite a strong economy. Here’s why.
We learned Friday that the unemployment rate is now at its lowest rate since 1969 at 3.6%. The economy added another 263,000 jobs. This capped a week in which President Donald Trump received his highest economic approval rating in any CNN poll at 56%. In other words, the economy is […] Read more »
The Economy and the Election
For as long as I’ve covered politics, the conventional wisdom has been that presidents win re-election in good economic times and they lose when the economy stinks. Ronald Reagan won re-election when the economy was booming. Jimmy Carter lost when we sunk into economic “malaise.” But, we also know that […] Read more »
Biden Accelerates the Democratic Fight About the White Working Class
White working-class voters’ share of the electorate may be shrinking even faster now than in recent years, new data suggest. But that dynamic shows no signs of dampening the growing debate among Democrats about how heavily the party should focus on recapturing the blue-collar whites who have become the foundation […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Trump’s approval rating on the economy hits a new high
President Donald Trump hits a new high on his economic approval ratings in a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, reaching 56% of Americans saying he’s doing a good job on the economy. The result comes on the heels of the announcement that the US economy grew at a much […] Read more »