The 2020 election may test as never before one of the most enduring rules of presidential politics, the straightforward four-word maxim coined by Democratic strategist James Carville in 1992: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Even amid record-low unemployment, robust economic growth and a roaring stock market, President Donald Trump has shown […] Read more »
With His Job Gone, an Autoworker Wonders, ‘What Am I as a Man?’
In the weeks since he lost his job at the car plant, Rick Marsh has blasted Pink Floyd while cleaning the house. He has watched the cat watching the birds. He has smoked cigarettes out the sliding glass door. He has watched Motor Trend, a TV network about cars. He […] Read more »
With the 2020 Democratic Field Set, Candidates Begin the Races Within the Race
Joseph R. Biden Jr. has built an early lead in the month since he entered the presidential campaign, confidently projecting himself as the Democratic front-runner and the candidate best positioned to defeat President Trump. But beneath the surface of a seemingly placid race is a much more volatile contest, as […] Read more »
Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind
The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections. At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind. But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one […] Read more »
2020 Democrats face 2012 GOP challenges
It’s been a month now since Joe Biden announced he was running for president and the Delaware Democrat has been sitting atop the polls since then. The Biden boomlet has come despite conventional wisdom that said the candidates on left of the Democratic Party held all the energy going into […] Read more »
Who’s up and who’s down in the 2020 Democratic primary? Basically no one.
… There will be a lot of focus at identifying microtrends in voter preferences this primary season. You can already hear it: “So-and-so candidate is up over the last few weeks, and so-and-so candidate is down.” But with the first contests still more than eight months away, the big question […] Read more »