Earlier this year, we published a three-part series on how well primary polls conducted in the calendar year before a presidential election predict the outcome. Our analysis, which covered more than 40 years of primaries, found that early polls are somewhat predictive of who eventually wins the nomination, especially when […] Read more »
Meeting in Miami
June’s Democratic debates seem to bear out the conclusion offered in my last column — primary debates can have more impact than general election confrontations. Pundits and polls agree that Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) had an excellent night. The commentariat didn’t need any numbers to declare her the winner, but […] Read more »
Why the ABC/WP Democratic Primary Poll Is an Outlier
After the second Democratic debate, several media organizations took polls to see how the candidates were faring. They all conducted their polls in the time frame of June 28-July 1. Three polls – ABC/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and CNN – interviewed Democrats and independents leaning Democratic across the country. USA Today/Suffolk […] Read more »
Castro and Harris emerge from first debate as leading candidates with Latinos
Julian Castro and Kamala Harris impressed Latinos most during the first 2020 Democratic presidential debates in late June, according to Univision’s post-debate survey. Harris and Castro jumped to the top of the rankings and join Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as the four Democratic candidates viewed most favorably by Latinos. […] Read more »
Why you should be skeptical of Tom Steyer 2020
Businessman and activist Tom Steyer has entered 2020 presidential race, after originally saying he wouldn’t run. Now, no one in their right mind would dismiss a billionaire who is willing to spend gobs of money on his own candidacy. He could influence the race significantly, even if he doesn’t come […] Read more »
What we can learn from the 2004 presidential race
Beware of reading too much into presidential polls. Take, for example, the 2004 race. An August 2003 CNN/USA Today/Gallup national survey found Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic nominee for vice president, leading the party’s presidential field with 23 percent. He was trailed by former House Majority (and Minority) […] Read more »