Last Thursday, ABC News finalized the lineup for the third Democratic primary debates, and only ten candidates will participate in just one debate. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates whether the field has been winnowed to ten and looks at the potential dynamic of third […] Read more »
How To Handle An Outlier Poll
It’s pretty rare that a pollster calls his own survey an “outlier.” But that’s exactly what happened last week after a Monmouth University poll showed an approximate three-way tie between Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute — an A-plus-rated pollster […] Read more »
Elizabeth Warren Narrows Joe Biden Lead Among Democrats: IBD/TIPP Poll
Joe Biden remains the Democratic front-runner, but Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren jumped to within four points of the former vice president in September’s IBD/TIPP Poll. Biden remained the surest choice in the 2020 election vs. President Donald Trump, with a 12-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup. Warren had a narrow […] Read more »
Trump’s 2020 pitch: A powerless presidency
The most powerful man in the world prefers to portray himself as a martyr. President Donald Trump says he’s been beset on all sides by sinister forces that are oppressing him and depriving him of the authority he needs to deliver on his vision for America. … Trump’s persecution complex […] Read more »
It’s now Biden, Warren, Sanders — and everyone else
The bottom is falling out of the Democratic presidential primary. And the top-tier — no longer five candidates, but three — is becoming more insurmountable. For more than a year, Democrats had approached their nominating contest with a widely-shared belief that — like Republicans in the earliest stages of their […] Read more »
2016 taught us a lesson about Trump. Now we need to unlearn it.
… While it is absurd at this point to predict anything about the 2020 presidential election, no sane candidate would prefer to be playing Trump’s hand. The most recent national election — the 2018 midterms — showed strong Democratic enthusiasm and collapsing Republican support in many suburban areas. … The […] Read more »