Professional pollsters say President Donald Trump and senior White House officials are rightly confident heading into his reelection bid because early 2020 surveys are likely flawed. … “I think the president’s support is undervalued,” said Neil Newhouse, the leading pollster for Republican Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential bid. “If you separate […] Read more »
Just How Many Swing Voters Are There?
It’s a long time until the 2020 general election, but there’s a good chance it will be competitive. After all, we live in a politically polarized era where most presidential elections are decided by relatively narrow margins (since 1988, in the single digits). Which means if the margins are as […] Read more »
California: Harris slips, as Warren, Sanders and Biden lead the pack in KQED online poll
California Sen. Kamala Harris has slipped to fourth place among likely Democratic voters in her home state, according to a new poll commissioned by KQED — the first survey of likely California primary voters taken since last week’s Democratic presidential debate. CONT. Scott Shafer, KQED Read more »
The Electoral College: Expanding the Map
Key Points• We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map.• While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up […] Read more »
Democratic debate moderators haven’t done American voters any favors
The first three Democratic presidential debates — five, if you count the double features in June and July — are, thankfully, in the political rearview mirror. It turns out that despite the hours and hours spent debating, and then the hours and hours talking about the debates, and then the […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: High interest in election, Democrats top Trump in matchups
Fifty-nine percent of voters are extremely interested in the 2020 presidential election. That’s a number typically only seen right before an election. It’s 27 points higher than around this same time in the last presidential cycle — and only one point off the record 60 percent extremely interested the week […] Read more »