… Biden has three advantages in this primary: association with former president Barack Obama, relative policy moderation and perceived electability. It’s basically impossible for anyone to detract from or surmount those first two qualities. Biden was Obama’s vice president for eight years — he’s more closely linked with Obama than […] Read more »
Are Democrats Ready To Impeach Trump?
Democrats are once again talking about whether to impeach President Trump after news broke that Trump may have asked the Ukrainian president to dig up dirt on former Vice President Joe Biden’s son, Hunter. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether the Ukraine story changes […] Read more »
Trump campaign pessimistic about winning Michigan again
Donald Trump has long heralded Michigan as the crown jewel of his 2016 victory. But the president’s campaign team is increasingly grim about a repeat performance in the traditionally blue Rust Belt state. After a midterm election that decimated the ranks of Michigan Republicans, Trump’s campaign is looking to other […] Read more »
Growing divide shows ‘electability’ question isn’t going anywhere
I’ve been hearing a new conversation in coffee shops and happy hours around the country. One friend makes their prediction of who will win in November 2020, and the other nods in agreement. But then the voices become hushed as the second person asks, “But do you really think the […] Read more »
Iowa: Warren surges to join Biden in top tier; caucusgoers tilt toward key Warren demographics
… One of the reasons Elizabeth Warren is doing better in Iowa is simply the demographics of likely caucusgoers. Nationally, Warren’s support is considerably strong among white Democrats and those who have a college degree. Both of those groups make up a considerably larger portion of the Iowa electorate than […] Read more »
Forecasting the House: Projections based on the presidential popular vote
This post is going to complete the series forecasting who will control of the House in 2020 based on the national environment, which is best measured by the presidential popular vote. CONT. Seth Moskowitz, Every Second Year Read more »