A majority of Americans have long opposed impeaching President Trump. Whether that will change, and what happens if it doesn’t, are some of many factors that will shape the political consequences for both parties. The risk to Democrats had been straightforward: With impeachment so unpopular, pursuing it would turn the […] Read more »
Trump’s approval ratings are bad news for Democrats
Something big happened to President Trump this week, and it’s not the Ukraine scandal. His job approval ratings have returned to where they were before his big August slump — and that’s bad news for the Democrats. Trump clearly had a terrible late summer. Starting with his tweet that the […] Read more »
Why Pelosi Announced An Impeachment Inquiry
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast, the crew discusses House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s decision to formally launch an inquiry into whether President Trump should be impeached. How did Democrats get to this point, and what might come next? FiveThirtyEight Read more »
The America That Isn’t Polarized
… Americans are living through an unusual political moment. Their political institutions are the most divided they’ve been since the period after the Civil War, according to some political science research. But how divided are Americans themselves? By some measures, around half of the population is either disengaged or has […] Read more »
Democrats are stuck in a doom loop of premature polling
Democratic voters are stuck in a self-destructive loop. The loop begins and ends with polls. Pollsters know that Democrats want to know who is the strongest candidate against President Donald Trump, so they conduct a lot of head-to-head polls matching Trump up against various contenders. The polls show that the […] Read more »
Will America Want to Have a Beer with Biden?
The latest polling data to emerge validates the view that Joe Biden went into and came out of the Houston debates as the front-runner; ditto the view that President Trump faces the more difficult reelection challenge of any elected president in the past 75 years. … My sense is that […] Read more »