It’s now been almost a week since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an official impeachment inquiry of President Trump. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew takes stock of how much public opinion has changed since Pelosi spoke and what polls tell us about the road ahead. […] Read more »
How House elections will expand the 2020 Electoral College map
The results of the 2020 House and Senate races will largely determine the efficacy of the next president. Losing either chamber to the other party would hamstring a president’s agenda — allowing the opposition to obstruct legislation, effectively negotiate the budget, and in the case of the Senate, stall executive […] Read more »
CNN Poll: Support for impeaching Trump rises among independents and Republicans
Americans are about evenly split over impeaching President Donald Trump and removing him from office, as support for that move has risen among independents and Republicans, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS after the announcement of a formal impeachment inquiry by House Democrats last week. About half, […] Read more »
What Democrats Could Lose With Their Left Turn
One defining feature of the Democratic primary so far has been the party’s leftward turn. In recent debates, candidates have supported policies like offering health insurance to undocumented immigrants, and commenters have warned about the potential electoral penalty of repelling persuadable voters. Political science research suggests that moderates generally fare […] Read more »
Will voters support Elizabeth Warren’s trade policy? Our research says yes.
… Recent trade deals between developed countries (the global North) and developing countries (the global South) have included labor and environmental standards that are just as legally binding and enforceable as the other parts within the deals. Both labor and environmental provisions have been effective in improving living standards in […] Read more »
The Front-Runner?
Biden has largely led in the polls since entering the Democratic primary. Yet his front-runner status is complex: a cornerstone of his primary support is the black community — a recent poll from YouGov and The Economist showed Biden with as much as 65 percent of black support — even […] Read more »