Polls probably aren’t at the top of your mind right now. We’re more than four months removed from the 2020 election, and we still have almost 20 months to go until the midterms. That’s why it’s the perfect time to launch the latest update to our FiveThirtyEight pollster ratings, which […] Read more »
Revisiting the ‘gold standard’ of polling: new methods outperformed traditional ones in 2020
Even before 2020 polling errors became evident, analysts wondered if we could trust the polls. After the election, concerns spiked — overall errors were even larger than in 2016. Frank Luntz went so far as to declare, “the polling profession is done.” We disagree. We think polling has a strong […] Read more »
Large Majority of the Public Views Prosecution of Capitol Rioters as ‘Very Important’
As the FBI and other federal law enforcement agencies continue to pursue charges against participants in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, the American public generally expresses strong support for continuing these efforts. Yet there are sizable partisan differences in attitudes about the riot at the Capitol, with […] Read more »
Making it easier to vote does not threaten election integrity
An election worker during mail-in ballot counting at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia on Nov. 6, 2020. Chris McGrath/Getty Images Douglas R. Hess, Grinnell College As state legislators consider hundreds of bills on election policies this spring, false claims of voter fraud are being repeated as justification for proposals […] Read more »
Donald Trump and the Lie
The legitimacy of democratically elected governments rests in part on widespread acceptance of the outcome of elections, especially among those who lost. This “losers’ consent” allows the winners to govern and, when the incumbent is the losing party, it allows for a peaceful transition of power. What happens in a […] Read more »
Most Americans think election results could lead to political violence in the coming years
A broad majority of Americans say that political violence in response to election results is likely in the United States in the next few years, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Overall, 71% say political violence in response to election results is at least somewhat likely, including […] Read more »