When the Democratic primaries start in less than two months, they will lead off as usual with four familiar early states. What follows next is different. It’s not so different as to be unrecognizable, but enough to upend conventional wisdom about the path to the nomination. A variety of changes […] Read more »
Why Aren’t More Women Breaking Out In The Democratic Primary?
… A number of studies have found that voters don’t easily move past women’s stumbles, and are less likely to view women as qualified or competent to begin with. And women’s qualifications can even be turned into liabilities. The precise effect of these attitudes is hard to pin down, but […] Read more »
Looking to Iowa
If you think the Iowa caucus results are now settled, you have been paying inadequate attention to the history of this remarkable ritual of American politics. And with Iowa unsettled, the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination is far from over, because, as regulars are no doubt sick of reading, […] Read more »
You could teach a political science class on all of Tom Steyer’s bad ideas
With so many entrants in the Democratic primary field, many observers have wondered what billionaire Tom Steyer’s candidacy adds to the race. Here’s one answer: Steyer is a gift to political scientists. His campaign offers us an unusual opportunity to explain why the “reforms” he champions as magical solutions to […] Read more »
The Democratic Primary, According To The Early States
In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew previews the official FiveThirtyEight polling averages for the 2020 Democratic primary, including how the race looks nationally and in the early states. Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders have both been incredibly steady in the polls, while Sen. […] Read more »
Firehouse/Optimus: President Trump Well-Positioned Against Leading Democratic Contenders
… As the impeachment process heats up in Washington, Donald Trump is seeing a boost in support in crucial swing states. Across the board, President Trump is polling well against the Democratic field in each of these battleground states. Notably, Vice President Biden has seen a sharp decline in support […] Read more »