Over the next week or 10 days, there should be a number of brand-name national polls released, a welcome development after the dearth of reliable polls since mid-November. Many networks and others budget for 10-12 national polls a year, scheduling one for one-year-out-before-election stories and maybe not another until a […] Read more »
The Votes That Could Deliver Democrats Another Majority
In the eyes of history, the ballot that House Democrats cast to impeach President Donald Trump will stand as the most significant vote they take this year, and maybe in their entire careers. But in terms of whether the party can keep its House majority after 2020, impeachment may not […] Read more »
Millennial Latinos in California Strongly Favor Bernie Sanders
In a previous analysis, I noted that Bernie Sanders is a clear favorite among Latino voters in California. A recent study by The Latino Community Foundation shows that young Latinos have an even stronger preference for Bernie, with over two-thirds rating the senator favorably. The favorability gap between Bernie Sanders […] Read more »
Logit. L-O-G-I-T.
This week, we dive into two new national polls, to see who’s gaining momentum, who’s losing support, and who’s holding steady. In light of this week’s unveiling of two articles of impeachment against President Trump, we look at how Americans’ views on impeaching and removing the President have (or haven’t) […] Read more »
When Voters Act Like Pundits
Pundits have long tried to put themselves in the shoes—actually the heads—of voters, attempting to understand what they’re thinking and why, as well as how they are likely to react to various circumstances. But with Democrats seemingly unified by just one thing—unseating President Trump—the fixation on electability is turning many […] Read more »
The Democratic Vice Presidential Derby: Look Beyond the 2020 Contenders
It’s of course entirely premature to speculate on the 2020 Democratic vice presidential candidate. Vice presidential selection depends heavily on which presidential candidate makes the choice, the options available, and the political context in June or July of a presidential election year when the decision is made. The selection is […] Read more »