It’s feast or famine! A bunch of new Iowa polls have been released, but their results greatly differ. Why, and can we accurately get a sense of where the Iowa contest stands? We pick up those questions on Poll Hub. But, first, Tuesday was the last chance Iowa caucus-goers had […] Read more »
Knowns & Unknowns: Hunting Black Swans in the Age of Disruption
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. CONT. — pdf Read more »
Checking in on Wisconsin
… A president sitting at 42 percent approval, with “strong disapproval” outweighing “strong approval” by 10-12 points is not going to win the national popular vote. But, that doesn’t mean he can’t win the Electoral College. And, in assessing the Electoral College reality, there’s no better place to check into […] Read more »
On Diversity, Were DNC Rules to Blame?
… During and after the 2016 Democratic presidential campaign, there were complaints that the DNC had not played square, that it had a finger on the scale for Hillary Clinton. It is certainly true that the DNC didn’t go out of its way to do Bernie Sanders or Martin O’Malley […] Read more »
The People’s Priorities, Examined
What will determine voters’ choice for president this year? Political scientists tell us that party loyalty, candidate images and personalities, and other idiosyncratic factors play a significant part in our vote. The main, overt focus of the presidential campaigns, however, is on none of the above — but instead is […] Read more »
Warren Goes on Offense
This week, we break down the winners and losers of the final Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses. Plus, we deep-dive into two new polls out of the Hawkeye State. Then, we discuss what Cory Booker’s exit might reveal about Democratic voters’ priorities. The Forecast Fest Read more »