Sixty-eight percent of registered voters think the coronavirus outbreak will have a big impact on election turnout in the U.S., a new poll shows — and nearly 4 in 10 support delaying the November presidential election until the pandemic is under control. The findings are from a TargetSmart survey conducted […] Read more »
Tracking The Pandemic In The Battleground
For the first time in our post-Tea Party era, America responded to a big national challenge with a single voice. Nine in ten Democrats, independents, and Republicans embraced social distancing to fight the pandemic in a way that stopped the economy, split families apart and most of all, left most […] Read more »
These Are Our Priors For The General Election
Now that Democrats have settled on a presumptive nominee, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team discusses their priors for the 2020 presidential contest. While seven months — and an unfolding crisis — separate us from election day, the 2020 election appears to have similar patterns to 2016’s — for now. The […] Read more »
We can hold safe elections in November—here’s how we get started now
We are living through an era of enormous challenges—slowing the coronavirus pandemic, finding medicines that could make it less lethal, finding a vaccine for it, and opening up an economy that has been moth-balled. In the midst of these challenges we must keep our democracy open and functioning. Frankly, in […] Read more »
Another lesson about context: Biden and young voters in 2020
Today, I thought I’d offer another lesson about why context is so important in political reporting and analysis — and how it can affect our view of the 2020 presidential contest. On April 8, NBC News ran a piece online, “Progressive Youth Groups Issue a List of Demands for Joe […] Read more »
Why Biden’s Polling Lead vs. Trump Isn’t as Solid as It Looks
President Trump and Joe Biden begin the general election campaign locked in a highly competitive contest that remains fought along the lines of the 2016 presidential election, according to national and battleground state polls. If anyone holds the early edge, it is Mr. Biden. He leads by an average of […] Read more »