Of the major political handicappers, not even one of them thinks the House is likely to flip in November. Not the folks at the Cook Political Report. Not the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. And certainly not my colleagues at Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, who in a recent […] Read more »
Incumbents usually are penalized in times of unrest
… The truth is that we really don’t know how recent events will alter the contours of this year’s presidential race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. History merely provides a road map with a number of different paths of how the public will react. … […] Read more »
The George Floyd Election
The nationwide protests over the killing of George Floyd will test two competing notions of how voters respond to crises that provoke both anger and grief. Could the demonstrations that have devolved into mayhem, looting and assault lead to victory for President Trump? Will they empower Republicans in the way […] Read more »
The Veepstakes: Handicapping Biden’s Choices
Key Points• Joe Biden should not be in a rush to name his vice presidential pick. Circumstances may change his list of contenders — and probably already have.• A predictable name leads our list, but a not-so predictable name is second.• Biden has many plausible options, but no perfect one. […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden-Trump tossup in Ohio, 82% approve of DeWine
A Fox News Poll of Ohio registered voters finds Democrat Joe Biden narrowly tops President Donald Trump in the race for the White House. At the same time, Republican Gov. Mike DeWine enjoys sky-high, bipartisan approval. Biden is ahead of Trump by a 45 to 43 percent margin. The former […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden ahead in Arizona, Kelly trouncing McSally in Senate race
Republicans are rightly concerned about Arizona. A new Fox News Poll finds the state shading blue — especially in the race for the U.S. Senate, where Democrat Mark Kelly bests incumbent Republican Sen. Martha McSally by a 50-37 percent margin among Arizona registered voters. … In a head-to-head presidential ballot […] Read more »