Former Vice President Joe Biden has jumped out to a 9 point lead on President Donald Trump with five months to go until the election, but the CNBC All-America Economic Survey finds the president still has the edge among voters on the critical issue of the economy. CONT. Steve Liesman, […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Trump’s Floodgates are Creaking
Key Points• We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week.• Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.• This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings; 204 are at least leaning to […] Read more »
Top GOP senator fears Trump is ‘soft’ with independents, urges shift in strategy
Senate Majority Whip John Thune sounded the alarm Wednesday that President Donald Trump’s support among independent voters was “soft,” urging a change in strategy in light of a New York Times survey that showed the president trailing Democrat Joe Biden by double digits. The Times/Siena national poll found Biden winning […] Read more »
Do Campaign Visits Pay Off? Evidence from the 2016 Presidential Election
Key Points• Donald Trump’s rally in Tulsa over the weekend was a reminder of how much his campaign values well-attended rallies.• Trump campaigned more times in more states than Hillary Clinton in 2016.• However, a regression analysis of the 2016 results does not show rallies having a significant impact on […] Read more »
The Democrats’ new loyalists? Suburban women.
For decades, Democrats and Republicans fought election-by-election to win the support of college-educated women. But these women, many of whom live in the nation’s suburbs, are now slipping out of the GOP’s reach. President Barack Obama won only 46 percent of this bloc in 2012; Hillary Clinton won 51 percent […] Read more »
The coronavirus pandemic is changing political polling as we know it
Primary Tuesday in New York, Kentucky, and Virginia was a quiet one. There were no crowded victory parties or subdued concession speeches. There weren’t even many winners or losers. Instead of exit polls and vote tallying, reporters told viewers that they would likely have to wait another week for results […] Read more »