Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. Given that we’re past both major party conventions and closing in on Labor Day, the only fair conclusion to reach is that Biden’s the favorite. Yet, it continues to be clear that the […] Read more »
These maps show how 2020 could come down to 1 electoral vote
Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. It’s been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote. Chances are that whoever wins the presidency will have a more comfortable margin than winning […] Read more »
Trump out to build ‘permission structure’ to win back voters
Showcasing Black Americans at the Republican National Convention to allay white voters’ fears that President Donald Trump is a racist. Sharing touching stories about the president’s concern for the military. Painting Democrat Joe Biden as an unacceptable alternative who threatens the American way of life. It’s all part of the […] Read more »
In a time of disruption and unrest, the presidential race has changed little
The presidential election is now eight weeks away, and the structure of the contest is little changed from where it has been for some time. President Trump is struggling and at times floundering. The question is whether he has the skills to turn around his candidacy in hopes of replicating […] Read more »
Flat Polls. Weak Ratings. Do Political Conventions Have a Future?
After 18 hours of speeches by the candidates, testimonials from former presidents and generals, poignant appeals from voters, a cross-country nominating roll call, opera on a White House balcony and fireworks over the Washington Monument, the verdict is in on the national political conventions. Ratings were down. Polls barely budged. […] Read more »
If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College
As he had in 2016, it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College, setting him up to potentially win reelection while again losing the popular vote. On this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump’s […] Read more »