It will be a while until we have a good understanding of public opinion in the aftermath of the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Most high-quality polls are conducted over three or more days, so we’ll have to wait to see many full poll results. Even then, […] Read more »
After a tumultuous month of news, Biden maintains national lead over Trump
After a month of political conventions, fresh controversies, more protests and additional deaths from the coronavirus, the 2020 presidential race remains where it’s been for months — with Joe Biden leading President Trump nationally by nearly double digits, and with a majority of voters opposing the president. Those are the […] Read more »
Biden holds sizable lead over Trump among Latino voters in NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll
Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump 62 percent to 26 percent among Latino registered voters nationally, but his lead trails Hillary Clinton’s advantage with this voting bloc at this same stage in 2016, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll released Sunday. Biden is seen by the poll’s […] Read more »
Supreme Court Fight Isn’t Guaranteed Game-Changer
While Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death will go down as yet another historic event in 2020, it’s unlikely to change the fundamental trajectory of the elections. In the middle of huge breaking news stories, it can be hard to remember that the country is incredibly polarized and the […] Read more »
Why it could be a Biden blowout in November
… Models such as those produced by FiveThirtyEight show just how possible it is for Biden to blow Trump out of the water. The model actually anticipates a better chance of Trump closing his deficit than Biden expanding it. Even so, Biden has a better chance (about 45%) of winning […] Read more »
Why Supreme Court politics in 2020 look way different from 2016 or 2018
… President Donald Trump was likely helped in the 2016 election by the fight over a Supreme Court nomination. Similarly, Republicans were likely aided in the 2018 Senate battle by the nomination and eventual confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh. We don’t know what the ultimate effect of any Supreme Court […] Read more »