President Donald Trump is down by a significant margin to former Vice President Joe Biden with just three weeks to go in the 2020 campaign. One of his apparent answers to climb out of that hole is to continue to feature Dr. Anthony Fauci in an ad, which the director […] Read more »
White Christians continue to favor Trump over Biden, but support has slipped
President Donald Trump continues to be White Christians’ preferred candidate for the November election, but support among voters in three major traditions – White Catholics, White Protestants who are not evangelical and even White evangelical Protestants – has slipped since August, according to a new Pew Research Center poll. CONT. […] Read more »
How 2020 may reconfigure politics in the Southwest
For years, the Southwest shimmered like a mirage to Democrats thirsting for a political breakthrough in the desert. Since 2004, steady gains have allowed them to establish a clear upper hand in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. But, until recently, they had been frustrated by their inability to extend those […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections Using Presidential Polling Data
Key Points• Senate elections have become increasingly tied to presidential voting results.• This shows up in this year’s polling, as the margins for states’ presidential and Senate races are closely linked.• An analysis of these polling data suggest that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between one […] Read more »
The New Electoral Map Isn’t Very New, But Biden’s Lead Keeps the Battleground From Shrinking
We’re now in the home stretch of the 2020 presidential campaign, with millions of ballots already cast via early and mail-in voting. The two candidates and their advisors are now making final decisions about where to allocate resources—ad spending, voter mobilization operations, and travel by the nominees and their running […] Read more »
Trump Defectors Help Biden Build Leads in Wisconsin and Michigan
Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a significant lead in the pivotal states of Michigan and Wisconsin, with President Trump so far failing to retain the overwhelming advantage he enjoyed among white voters there in 2016, according to surveys from The New York Times and Siena College on Monday. … The […] Read more »