A big question heading into this cycle was whether Democrats’ best path to winning back the White House ran through the Sunbelt or the Great Lakes (i.e. Rust Belt). While we won’t know for certain which pathway was best for them until the votes are actually counted, the current data […] Read more »
Why Biden’s poll lead is different than Hillary Clinton’s
For many political junkies and analysts, the 2020 presidential campaign feels eerily familiar. The national polls show the Democrat has a big lead. There are some usually Republican states that seem to be in play. And the Trump campaign is relying heavily on a base-focus strategy. It’s all very 2016 […] Read more »
Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, has edge in Arizona
From Wisconsin to Arizona, as in much of the country, these final weeks of the campaign look to be about who actually votes, because voters say they’ve made their choices, and many have made it official. Mail ballot returns are pouring in, and almost all remaining voters say they’re locked […] Read more »
Can Biden compete in Trump’s rural strongholds? Democrats hope so.
… After a tumultuous first term, Trump has seen his support erode across the country, even in deeply conservative rural areas that have been a bedrock of his support, and he is racing to stem any lasting damage. A series of national polls have shown a narrowing of his once-dominating […] Read more »
Can We Trust the Polls?
In 2016, the public — particularly Democrats — felt utterly let down by pollsters and election forecasters like Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight. But Silver stood by his model, saying that disappointment was a result of an overly-optimistic reading of his forecast, which had given Trump a 30-percent chance of winning. […] Read more »
This Election, Republicans Should Take Nothing for Granted
Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, liberal or conservative, predisposed toward labor or business, your eyes should now be squarely pointed to the races below the presidential level. … For some time, pollsters of all stripes have been seeing that Trump’s political problems were metastasizing and now infecting many […] Read more »