From governors’ houses to state assemblies, many Republican incumbents lost their seats on Tuesday — largely thanks to suburban Republican voters disillusioned with President Trump. Since Mr. Trump’s rise in 2016, Republicans have seen their support slip in affluent suburbs such as those around Philadelphia and the Virginia counties near […] Read more »
The media is missing the big story from Tuesday’s elections
The immediate post-election story has focused on the continued Republican problems in the suburbs. But there’s another part of the story that is good news for the GOP, a part that shows our continuing realignment moves in two directions. That story is the ongoing movement of formerly Democratic regions and […] Read more »
It’s 2016 All Over Again
If you feel whipsawed from the last round of polling and election results, well, you are not alone. The week started with the release of an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that showed President Donald Trump losing to both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 8-9 points. […] Read more »
Trump vs. ?? — Swing State Edition
This week, we discuss head-to-head match-ups between President Trump and top Democratic candidates in key swing states. Then we dissect Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Medicare-for-all plan, and the polling around Medicare-for-all. Finally, we look at new caucus polling out of Iowa and Nevada, and examine a few results from Election Day […] Read more »
Republicans Claim Trump Closed a 17-Point Gap in Kentucky. That’s Not Quite What Happened.
It seemed in many ways like nothing new: another high-ranking Republican official offering a dubious assertion about the potent political powers of President Trump. But a claim from the chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel — that Mr. Trump helped lift Gov. Matt Bevin of Kentucky from a […] Read more »
Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map
Key Points • Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. • Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a […] Read more »