Key Points• Perhaps the biggest threat to Joe Biden is the nominating calendar.• Biden is reliant on support from African Americans, but the electorates of the first two states, Iowa and New Hampshire, are almost entirely white. • However, even if one or more of Biden’s rivals best him in the […] Read more »
Five Takeaways from Republicans’ Narrow NC-09 Escape
Republicans narrowly averted disaster as GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop eked out a 51 percent to 49 percent win over Democrat Dan McCready in North Carolina’s 9th CD, where an absentee ballot fraud scandal last fall required a new election. But Tuesday’s results were nothing to brag about: Bishop and […] Read more »
GOP special election win papers over fragile 2020 position
Republicans went all-in to keep hold of a key congressional district in a special election Tuesday, and they won — but they still have good reason to be concerned about the result. While the GOP can celebrate the election of a new congressman, Dan Bishop, his 2-point victory in a […] Read more »
Republicans Won Both Elections In North Carolina — But It’s Not All Bad News For Democrats
On Tuesday, North Carolina played host to the most closely watched election since the 2018 midterms. On paper, it was Republicans who emerged victorious, going 2-for-2 in two separate congressional elections. But there was also a silver lining for Democrats — their final vote margin in the night’s marquee race […] Read more »
9 Things I Think I Think After the North Carolina Redo Election
Nearly a year after the two parties fought to a draw in North Carolina’s 9th District, Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready ended with another close race. Bishop prevailed 51 percent to 49 percent, with absentee ballots remaining to be counted. A win is better than a loss (and […] Read more »
What you can — and can’t — expect to learn from the North Carolina special election
On Wednesday morning, one of the major parties is going to be irrationally exuberant and the other will be despondent once the results are in from the special election in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. But trying to read the tea leaves is almost always a useless exercise. Historical data […] Read more »