Throughout the 2018’s primaries, the “year of the woman” has been cited as a dominant recurring theme, but as summer winds down, another storyline is emerging. The 2018 election may bring the most diverse set of candidates in U.S. political history — and not just racial diversity, but also a […] Read more »
Trump Won Pennsylvania. Democrats Want the State (and His Voters) Back.
… In his 2016 victory, Mr. Trump swiped several states that Democrats had assumed were theirs: Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida. But perhaps no outcome matched the psychic toll of losing Pennsylvania, where the past Democratic coalition of city-dwelling liberals, racial minorities and white working-class voters in union towns had long defined […] Read more »
Democrats in stronger position to take the House: CBS News Battleground Tracker
Democrats have improved their standing in the fight for control of the House of Representatives. Our House model now shows the party poised to win 222 seats if the election were today, up from our estimate of 219 earlier this summer. The range on that estimate is plus or minus […] Read more »
Booming Economy May Be Little Felt as Voters Decide
Republicans are telling you that tax cuts and roaring economic growth are going to stop any “blue wave” in the midterm elections. Democrats say the lack of wage growth, even as corporate profits surge, will impel voters to change leadership in Congress. It’s not that simple. A new survey of […] Read more »
Poll Hub: Trump v. Nixon for Lowest Approval Rating
In this week’s episode of Poll Hub, a look at the midterm primary results in Minnesota and Wisconsin. How did the polls help inform in the days and weeks leading up to these primaries? Why does timing matter? We have the answers. Plus, he’s baaack! Harry Enten, Senior Writer and […] Read more »
How FiveThirtyEight’s House Model Works
We’ve been publishing election models for more than 10 years now, and FiveThirtyEight’s 2018 House model is probably the most work we’ve ever put into one of them. That’s mostly because it just uses a lot of data. … The principles behind the House forecast should be familiar to FiveThirtyEight […] Read more »