… The Democratic capture of four Republican-held congressional seats in Orange County in November — more than half the seven congressional seats Democrats won from Republicans in California — toppled what had long been a fortress of conservative Republicanism. The sweep stunned party leaders, among them Paul D. Ryan, the […] Read more »
The Healthcare Vote That Republicans Missed in the Midterms
Now that a federal judge has sided with 20 states to strike down the 2010 Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) as unconstitutional, the political effects of the healthcare issue have returned to center stage. Even before that Dec. 14 decision, however, voters in the 2018 midterm elections were […] Read more »
50 Interesting Facts About the 2018 Election
In keeping with our end-of-cycle tradition, we found 50 interesting things to tide you over during the holidays as we take a well-earned break. CONT. Jennifer Duffy, David Wasserman & Ally Flinn, Cook Political Report Read more »
2020 GOP Win Happens If Never Trumpers Step Aside
The results of our latest national survey of 1,000 likely 2020 presidential year voters, conducted between Dec. 10-14, show that even with all the media bias and attacks on the president, really not much has changed since our postelection poll of 1,000 people voting on Nov. 6 of this year. […] Read more »
Moderation in the Pursuit of Reelection May Not Help
In my book, The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation and the Rise of Donald Trump, I argue that the United States has entered a new era of electoral competition in the 21st century. The most important characteristics of 21st century elections are partisan polarization and nationalized elections, and the results […] Read more »
Three profoundly dangerous myths about the 2018 elections
In the days immediately after the 2018 elections the most widely circulated analysis held that along with high turnout among minority voters the significant Democratic gains in the House of Representatives and in a range of state level elections were the result of the significant defection from the GOP of […] Read more »