A private survey conducted for the Republican National Committee and obtained by Bloomberg Businessweek contains alarming news for Republicans hoping to hold on to control of Congress in November: Most Trump supporters don’t believe there’s a threat that Democrats will win back the House. President Trump’s boasts that a “red […] Read more »
Kavanaugh allegations could be monster storm brewing for midterm elections
It’s only September, but the October surprise for the 2018 campaign seems to be happening ahead of schedule. The accusation of sexual assault against Trump Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh could have powerful repercussions in this year’s midterm. The Senate Judiciary Committee will very likely have to delay a […] Read more »
Will Democratic Senators Lose Despite The ‘Blue Wave’?
… In soccer, the most obvious advantage of having a man advantage after an opposing player has been sent off on a red card is that it’s much easier to score goals. But what’s nearly as important is that it becomes very difficult for the other team to score a […] Read more »
Independents Approve of the Economy, but Will It Help Republicans in the Midterms?
… What nonpartisans make of Mr. Trump’s stewardship of the economy may give us some insight into whether Republicans will get a boost in the midterms, because independents are often the most persuadable voters. It may also offer an indicator of whether weakly committed Republican partisans might defect at the […] Read more »
Why It’s NOT the Economy, Stupid
… Unemployment is down. Economic growth and consumer confidence are up. Even wages are starting to show some gains. But if the economy and the public’s satisfaction with it automatically translated into strong presidential approval numbers and gains for the president’s party, Donald Trump’s job approval would be well over […] Read more »
A Republican stronghold has become ground zero in 2018
… After years of neglect, Democrats are mounting their most serious effort in memory to crack Orange County, a vast (3.2 million population) and sprawling suburban county southwest of Los Angeles. Once a symbol of unbending conservatism and white racial backlash, Orange County has grown more competitive in presidential elections […] Read more »