The 2016 presidential election gave Democrats a painful reminder that the path to the White House runs through the rough terrain of the Electoral College. Despite enjoying a popular vote margin of nearly 3 million, the Democratic ticket won only 20 states with 232 electoral votes, compared to the 30 […] Read more »
The ‘Rotten Equilibrium’ of Republican Politics
One clear lesson from the elections of 2016 and 2018 is that President Trump and his fellow Republican candidates win where white voters are losing ground. Take a look at the 2018 congressional results in the upper Midwest and Pennsylvania, states that provided the Electorate College votes crucial to Trump’s […] Read more »
What Elizabeth Warren’s Last Election Can Tell Us About 2020
One of the many reasons I think New England is great is that its elections are conducted — and its results are reported — at the city/town level, not the county level. That lets psephologists like me study them in greater detail, and one election I’m particularly interested in is […] Read more »
The Wandering Voters: How 2018’s gubernatorial results reflected 2016’s presidential trends
In 2018, Democrats won over suburban voters to cruise to a roughly 8.5-point win in the national House vote, even as the rural areas remained red. In the following writeup, I look at where each party made gains this past cycle. I also look at how third-party performance in 2016 […] Read more »
Declining confidence in election results may be depressing voter turnout
Perhaps the most disturbing new trend in US electoral politics has been the increase in high-profile candidates and officials claiming that our elections are rife with fraud. This concern may seem misplaced given the disturbing allegations of absentee ballot fraud this fall in North Carolina and what the Justice Department’s […] Read more »
Women who ran for Congress avoided women’s issues in their campaign ads
Screenshot of ‘Elaine Luria for Congress: Sea Change.’ YouTube Shawn Parry-Giles, University of Maryland; Aya Hussein Farhat, University of Maryland; Matthew Salzano, University of Maryland, and Skye de Saint Felix, University of Maryland A record number of women were sworn into Congress on Jan. 3. The influx of women candidates […] Read more »