Fueled by advantages among Latinos, independents and women, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema holds a 6-point lead over Republican Martha McSally in Arizona’s key Senate contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll of the state. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply
Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead. CONT. Stuart Rothenberg, Roll […] Read more »
It’s not a blue wave. It’s a realignment of American politics
In next week’s midterm elections, President Donald Trump is poised to put his stamp on each party’s demographic and geographic base of support as surely as he formerly fastened it to one of his hotels. A CNN analysis of the demography of the most competitive districts in the House of […] Read more »
Where some see tragedy in toxic politics, Trump sees opportunity
Tragedy and terror have dominated the last 72 hours in American politics. On Friday, authorities charged Caesar Sayoc of sending more than a dozen pipe bomb packages targeted at prominent Democrats. On Saturday, an anti-Semitic gunman killed 11 at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. And both appear to be products of […] Read more »
Harvard IOP Youth Poll: Democrats preferred to control Congress 66% to 32%; President Trump’s approval rating stands at 26%
The Institute of Politics (IOP) at Harvard Kennedy School today released the results of their biannual survey of 18- to 29- year olds showing that young Americans are significantly more likely to vote in the upcoming midterm elections compared to 2010 and 2014. Overall, 40 percent report that they will […] Read more »
North Carolina Embraces Early Voting Like Never Before
The number of people voting early, in person, in North Carolina — what most of the country calls “early voting,” but what North Carolina calls “one-stop absentee voting” — has exploded in 2018. (For this post, I will use the more common term “early voting” to refer to North Carolina’s […] Read more »