The 2018 midterm election dramatically shifted the balance of power in the House of Representatives, from Republican to Democratic control. Many expected that, given President Trump’s relatively low approval rating. Historically, that had meant the president’s party would lose many House races. Pre-election polling largely confirmed the likely Democratic takeover. […] Read more »
Blue waves and white bubbles: What America’s growing diversity portends for the GOP
In many ways, two Americas voted Tuesday: One that is large, white, and shrinking; another that’s far smaller, more racially, ethnically and culturally diverse -– and growing inexorably. Look back a generation: 91 percent of voters in 1990 were white. Tuesday, 72 percent were white, the fewest on record for […] Read more »
The Economy Didn’t Save Republicans After All
Unemployment is abnormally low. Growth has sped up. A $1.5 trillion tax cut, signed by President Trump last year, is fueling consumer spending. Faced with strong Democratic enthusiasm and fund-raising, and hindered by an unpopular president, Republicans were counting on that economic strength to lift them at the polls, or […] Read more »
What the ‘Trump tax’ cost Republicans
… The Trump tax is conceptually the difference between where President Trump’s approval ratings are and where a more typical Republican president’s would be given national conditions. A Vox analysis in 2016 suggested that Trump was running several points behind a generic Republican presidential nominee in that election. As John […] Read more »
Providing Context for the Midterm Election Results
The Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives in Tuesday’s voting not only followed the historical pattern of the president’s party losing seats in the midterms but it fulfilled expectations set by the political environment. Gallup’s national polling this fall found relatively high public displeasure with President Donald Trump and […] Read more »
The Rising American Electorate and white working class strike back
The Democrats had a very big election on Tuesday, with a 5-point national congressional margin that allowed them to pick up 32 House seats, to elect a record-breaking 100 women to the House, and to flip six statehouses and seven governors’ mansions. Democrats now occupy nearly half of the 50 […] Read more »